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  • Coronavirus: effect of the state of alarm on the evolution of the epidemic. Forecasts and estimates.- Joaquín Mariano Pellicer Balsalobre y David Parra Pecharromán

Publication

27/04/2020

Coronavirus: effect of the state of alarm on the evolution of the epidemic. Forecasts and estimates.- Joaquín Mariano Pellicer Balsalobre y David Parra Pecharromán

The unprecedented health crisis triggered by the pandemic caused by the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has led to the declaration of a state of alarm with unprecedented confinement measures. The Spanish Government's objective is the health and safety of citizens, containing disease progression through the prevention of contagion, containment of the virus, as well as mitigating its health impact. However, the progression of COVID-19 disease has been a challenge to the decision-making scenario analysis capabilities supported by scientific data become highly relevant. The study of the development of the epidemic based on Gompertz’s equation, can provide the elements of judgment necessary for the modulation of measures during the alarm state, as well as to mitigate gradually the limitation measures.

Document written by: Joaquín Mariano Pellicer Balsalobre, Captain of Guardia Civil, MsC in Biology andy Biochemistry, Master in Peace, Security and Defence in IUGM; y David Parra Pecharromán, Captain of Guardia Civil, PhD  in Veterinary, Master in Police Science, Univ. Alcalá de Henares.

Note: The full text document is only available in Spanish.

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