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The COVID-19 in Latin America does not watch over intimacy but discovers it.- Andrés González Martín.

Since the beginning of the epidemic, different analysts have tried to estimate the impact of the Wuhan virus. The different forecasts have had to be revised as new data became available. Interest in assessing damage has been disconnected from the cause of the damage and its behaviour. The problem is that we have never before experienced a pandemic generated by a coronavirus and COVID-19 is a complete unknown.

The attempt to identify possible scenarios, without assessing how the virus acts, has provided insufficient estimates. The forecasts have changed and will continue to change if we ignore how the disease works. We are not talking about a flu with higher mortality than usual. COVID-19 is something new that works with unknown patterns according to its own codes.

The WHO has recognised that Latin America may be the new epicentre of COVID-19. At this time, it is not feasible to estimate what the effects of the virus will be at the global, regional or national level. However, not knowing the results does not prevent a glimpse of where it will leave its traces.

Document written by Andrés González Martín. Artillery Lieutenant Colonel. Analyst of IEEE.

Note: The full text document is only available in spanish.

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