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An estimative analysis on the most probable effects of the end of the territorial power of Daesh (DIEEEO111-2017)

Between the summer and the autumn of 2017, the jihadist organization Daesh suffered several significant defeats in different cities of Syria and Iraq. Those defeats have deprived Daesh most of the previously conquered territories, inflicted numerous casualties, enormous losses of resources and a real damage to its image. The collapse of the Caliphate proclaimed by the leader of the Daesh opens different questions about its possible consequences. This article aims to answer, tentatively, to some of these questions, putting special interest into the effects of the end of Daesh´s territorial power over its own structure and activities in Syria and Iraq. First, we propose a schematic definition and explanations of those possible effects. Next, we analyses those possible effects, one by one, in order to estimate their specific probability. Finally, we try to answer other several questions regarding to the influence of the Daesh´s territorial defeats on other relevant issues, such as the evolution of the global jihadist movement as a whole, the conflicts in Syria and Iraq and the risk of terrorist attacks in Western countries.

 Author: Luis de la Corte Ibáñez


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