Search in this website



Flocks of black swans.- Amable Sarto Ferreruela

In 2007, the Lebanese philosopher Nassim Nicholas Taleb coined the term ‘black swan’to refer to unexpected events, of great impact and that, in retrospect, can be considered predictable.  These  black  swans  are  more  common  than  is  generally  accepted  and  are thegreat  engines  of  social  and  personal  change.  Classic  prospective  studies  and  risk prevention  studies  often  fail  to  activate  preventive  measures  against  extraordinary events, and therefore, when they occur, they have far-reaching effects. In recent years, there  has  been  a  proliferation  of  this  type  of  event  (the  resurgence  of  populism  and nationalism, the victory of Trump, the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, ...) whose impact has been  amplified  by  globalization.  Casting  a  large  shadow  over  all  of  them,  like  a  black swan that alters everything, the COVID-19 has emerged.

Document written by Amable Sarto Ferreruela. Artillery Colonel DEM

Note: The full document is only available in Spanish.

Useful documents

Flocks of black swans.
  • Pdf   532.7 KB
© Copyright 2010 Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies