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19/07/2016

Skill of estimates and forecasts : evaluation of the methodology and quality of analysis (DIEEEM12-2016)

In the field of Social Sciences, some analysis explicitly attempt to provide assessment about the future. This paper will address two methodologies from a predominantly qualitative and a predominantly quantitative nature, some of these studies of future, explaining what they are based on and trying to clarify the criteria for evaluation. To do this it will be based on the work of American authors world reference in its field. As a study of limited scope, remain unstudied fields from Spanish authors to prospective methods and election results. Finally, the analytic standards of U. S. and Spain Intelligence Community will also be reviewed to find out which base their quality and their possible evaluation.

Author: Fernando Toboso Marqués

THIS DOCUMENT IS ONLY AVAILABLE IN SPANISH LANGUAGE.

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