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11/07/2018

Effects of the Ukrainian war in the Baltic Republics.- Andrés González Martín

Before the war in Ukraine, in the three Baltic republics the threat from Russia was understood as a question of political or economic dimensions. Now, the threat relate to an essential military dimension. Since 2014, there has been a militarization of the security of these States with the essential aim of guaranteeing the full validity of the defense commitments of the allies in the region. The security dilemma that arises can trigger a military escalation in the Baltic and in Scandinavia.

On the other hand, the policy of open doors of NATO can activate another dilemma to Russia, that of integration. Russia perceives the integration of its neighbors into military alliances or economic associations that it cannot access as a threat to its own security and prosperity. Ukraine is at the center of the hurricane of this integration dilemma, affecting this crisis to all the near and distant foreigners of the Russian Federation.

In this situation, the Baltic republics are particularly vulnerable, which could be isolated from the rest of the members of the European Union and NATO if their current connections were attacked and their internal fractures caused by their important Russian minorities are exacerbated.

Author: Andrés González Martín

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Effects of the Ukrainian war in the Baltic Republics
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