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07/08/2014

Opinion document: Constructing scenes without group of experts. Scenes of future in Mali

This paper aims to present a methodology to generate future scenarios in which the role of the expert group is taken by a very limited number of analysts, therefore may not consider a prospective method, although it can be useful for analysts when time and budget constraints are insurmountable.
It is based on a sequence of three steps: identification of key variables - structural analysis, morphological analysis and morphological space reduction. In addition to the aforementioned analysis (also attempt to disclose), discussion and collective reasoning will be the basis of the process. Be exposed or cited some software (MICMAC, Morphol, SMIC) and analytical tools (SWOT, discussion group). For the procedure does not remain at the theoretical level is applied in the construction of future scenarios in Mali.

Author: Fernando Toboso Marqués

THIS DOCUMENT IS ONLY AVAILABLE IN SPANISH LANGUAGE.