28/04/2020
In 2007, the Lebanese philosopher Nassim Nicholas Taleb coined the term ‘black swan’to refer to unexpected events, of great impact and that, in retrospect, can be considered predictable. These black swans are more common than is generally accepted and are thegreat engines of social and personal change. Classic prospective studies and risk prevention studies often fail to activate preventive measures against extraordinary events, and therefore, when they occur, they have far-reaching effects. In recent years, there has been a proliferation of this type of event (the resurgence of populism and nationalism, the victory of Trump, the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, ...) whose impact has been amplified by globalization. Casting a large shadow over all of them, like a black swan that alters everything, the COVID-19 has emerged.
Document written by Amable Sarto Ferreruela. Artillery Colonel DEM
Note: The full document is only available in Spanish.